Replace dateadd() with datediff() to get an adequate approximate (30%ish). select distinct SessionId from [User].Session -- 1.2M est, 3.0M act. where datediff(day, CreatedUtc, sysutcdatetime()) < 365 This appears to be a bug similar to [MS Connect 630583][1]. Option recompile makes no difference. [![enter image description here][2]][2] [1]: https://connect.microsoft.com/SQLServer/feedback/details/630583/incorrect-estimate-with-condition-that-includes-datediff [2]: https://i.sstatic.net/ApLAB.jpg